Ecological niche modeling of Cedrelinga cateniformis in the Ecuadorian Amazon
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22201/ib.20078706e.2026.97.5806Keywords:
Potential distribution, Bioclimatic variables, Environmental suitability, Agroforestry systemsAbstract
The Ecuadorian Amazon, one of the most biodiverse ecosystems on the planet, faces increasing pressures from deforestation, agricultural expansion, mining, and landscape fragmentation, threatening its ecological resilience. Cedrelinga cateniformis (Ducke) Ducke is notable for its rapid growth, adaptability to acidic soils, and capacity to improve soil fertility, making it a promising species for ecological restoration through agroforestry systems. This study aimed to model its ecological niche using the MaxEnt algorithm across the 6 Amazonian provinces of Ecuador to identify potential distribution areas and support conservation and sustainable production strategies. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from WorldClim and elevation data were analyzed using 136 validated presence records. After removing collinearity (r > 0.70), 10 variables were selected, and the model was validated (75/25%) using AUC and TSS. The model showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.992). The most influential variable was precipitation of the driest month (BIO14; 71.9%). Approximately 13,288 km² (11.07% of the territory) showed optimal suitability, mainly in Sucumbíos and Orellana, highlighting key areas for restoration and conservation planning in the Ecuadorian Amazon.
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