la Wild chia (Salvia hispanica) populations, endangered under global warming scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22201/ib.20078706e.2026.97.5730Keywords:
Climate change, Environmental suitability, Species distribution, Vulnerability riskAbstract
The conservation of crop wild relatives is particularly worrisome under global warming scenarios given their potential as sources of diversity for cultivars. Here we evaluate the potential effect of climate change through ecological niche modeling for wild chia (Salvia hispanica) populations as the closest crop wild relative. Current and future (2040, 2060, 2080) climatic conditions were modeled using 4 global climate models (ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, MIROC6, and CanESM5) and 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), accounting for both limited and long-distance dispersal scenarios. Current potential wild S. hispanica distribution is 192,789 km2, 16.72% in climatically stable areas and coinciding with 184 Nature Conservancy Areas in Mexico and Guatemala. Unfortunately, by 2040, 2060, and 2080 wild chia’s potential distribution would reduce by 60.81 to 83.07%, respectively under optimistic scenarios with potential of dispersion as well as pessimistic and nondispersal scenarios. Furthermore, the most sensitive areas are in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Pacific Coast, and Guatemala, which also are reportedly the most genetically diverse populations. We urge conservation efforts to increase wild germplasm collections and embark on in situ conservation with local communities to preserve the genetic reservoir of the species for future crop breeding.
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