Updated species list, distribution and modeling of alpine mosses in central Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22201/ib.20078706e.2026.97.5634Keywords:
Bryophyta, Digital mapping, Machine learning, Maxent, Mexican highlands, Predictive modeling, Species distribution modelsAbstract
The Neovolcanic Belt of central Mexico is a phytogeographically significant region that influenced moss distribution patterns in the Americas. Its alpine moss flora was updated in 1971, but species range information remains fragmentary. This study updates the list and distribution of alpine mosses in the Neovolcanic Belt, and improves our understanding of these ranges by developing species distribution models (SDMs) for 4 mosses. Hypothetically, mosses reached alpine tops by migration. At lower elevations, interchange by corridors across the Belt connected ecologically similar areas and brought other species to alpine elevations. This can be tested using SDMs. SDMs provided high to relatively high prediction accuracy for all modeled species (mAUC = 0.88 ± 0.06; mCBI = 0.72 ± 0.09), and confirmed the corridor hypothesis. Overall, elevation emerged as the most important distribution predictor of target species, showing a positive sigmoidal relationship with environmental suitability. Our models effectively captured an integrated climatic signal via elevation, due to its strong negative correlation with several temperature- and precipitation-related predictors. Out of 120 alpine mosses, some are widespread in central Mexico while others are mainly distributed in eastern or western mountains. Additional fieldwork and ecological research are essential to further clarify their distribution.
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