Modeling ecological niches and predicting geographic distributions: a test of six presence-only methods

Abstract

MODELING ECOLOGICAL NICHES OF SPECIES AS A MEANS TO PREDICT GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS IS A GROWING FIELD THAT HAS BEEN APPLIED TO NUMEROUS CHALLENGES OF IMPORTANCE IN ECOLOGY, SYSTEMATICS, AND HUMAN WELL-BEING. THE INCREASING AVAILABILITY AND VARIETY OF SUCH PREDICTIVE ALGORITHMS REQUIRES TESTING THEIR PERFORMANCE. IN THIS STUDY, WE COMPARE 6 SUCH ALGORITHMS (MAXENT, BIOMAPPER, DOMAIN, FLORAMAP, THE GENETIC ALGORITHM GARP, AND WEIGHTS OF EVIDENCE) AS REGARDS THEIR ABILITY TO PREDICT THE GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF 10 SPECIES OF MEXICAN BIRDS FOR WHICH AMPLE DISTRIBUTIONAL DATA ARE AVAILABLE. THE RESULTS OF THIS STUDY NEVERTHELESS LED TO REFL ECTIONS ON HOW MODEL QUALITY SHOULD BE EVALUATED