Análisis exploratorio de la amplitud ambiental y requerimientos ecológicos para identificar áreas potenciales de muestreo y cultivo de Elionurus muticus (Poaceae) en América del Sur
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22201/ib.20078706e.2025.96.5555Palabras clave:
Distribución potencial, Cambio climático, Modelado de nicho, Cobertura de sueloResumen
Elionurus muticus posee un gran potencial industrial y capacidad de producción; no obstante, se carece de información sobre sus requerimientos ecológicos. Aquí analizamos su distribución potencial actual y futura en América del Sur mediante modelado de nicho ecológico para establecer estrategias de muestreo, identificar regiones óptimas de cultivo y evaluar el impacto del cambio climático en su distribución. Se estimó una distribución potencial de 4,573,895.843 km2. Las áreas de mayor probabilidad de presencia fueron el noroeste de la Sabana Uruguaya,
Chaco Húmedo, Campos y Malezales, norte de la Sabana Inundada del Paraná, suroeste del Espinal y sureste de la Pampa Húmeda. Las variables bioclimáticas presentaron una mayor amplitud comparadas con las edáficas. La temperatura mínima del mes más frío, la precipitación del mes más cálido y el pH del suelo mostraron el mayor
porcentaje de contribución al modelo. En las 12 combinaciones de escenarios futuros analizados, la distribución se mantuvo estable. La mayoría de las variables mostraron intervalos de valores uniformes. El suroeste del Cerrado, oeste de la Sabana Uruguaya, y Campos y Malezales destacaron como áreas altamente potenciales y estables propicias para el muestreo, cultivo y aprovechamiento eficiente de E. muticus en América del Sur.
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